аргумент.

Category: Analysis

Detailed analysis of economic events, decisions, and texts — from budget amendments to corporate strategies. No slogans or oversimplification: logic, numbers, and consequences.

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The Debt Spiral of Microloans: Why Russians Keep Refinancing and What Changes in 2026

How microloan rules will change in 2026: overpayment capped at 100%, a limit of two high-rate contracts, and a cooling-off period. Why Russians fall into the MFO debt spiral and what the new market regulation will achieve.

Yulia Ignatova4 min read
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Avito's 2025 Year in Review: Regulation, Artificial Intelligence, and New Business Opportunities

The platform economy entered a new regulatory reality in 2025. We sat down with Avito's GR Director Dmitry Gavrilenko to discuss how the role of digital platforms in the economy is evolving and which company decisions proved pivotal.

Valeria Novoselova3 min read
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Smart Consumption: How 2025 Reshaped Russian Retail

An analysis of Russian retail in 2025: turnover growth to 60 trillion rubles, the shift toward smart consumption, a 9% decline in the electronics market, and corporate strategies for adapting to high key interest rates.

Valeria Novoselova4 min read
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Time Isn't Water: What 2025 Held for the Alcohol Industry

How Russia's alcohol industry changed in 2025: a moratorium on spirit producer licenses, beer excise taxes rising to €1.5 per liter, wine industry development, and business challenges. Expert opinions and key events of the year.

Yulia Ignatova5 min read
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Russian IT Industry in 2025: A Year in Review. Part Two

Key developments in Russia's IT sector in 2025: AI moving from theory to practice, sanctions pressure, budget cuts, and major achievements. Industry experts from leading companies weigh in on challenges and growth prospects.

Yulia Ignatova4 min read
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Russian IT Industry in 2025: Part One

Key developments and challenges facing Russia's IT sector in 2025: the shift toward cost-effective digitalization, budget cuts, and progress in import substitution. Leading IT company experts weigh in on the year's major trends and risks.

Yulia Ignatova4 min read
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Insurance Market: 2025 Results

Russia's insurance market grew 15–18% in 2025 to reach 2.7–2.8 trillion rubles. OSAGO reforms, digitalization, cyber insurance, and the industry's main challenge—declining customer trust. Analysis of key trends and forecasts.

Yulia Ignatova6 min read
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Why Some Sellers of Artificial Christmas Trees and Holiday Decorations Are Temporarily Leaving Marketplaces

Sellers of artificial Christmas trees and decorations are abandoning marketplaces ahead of New Year's due to mass returns. How a wave of returns turns revenue into losses and what Wildberries and Ozon are doing to address the problem.

Yulia Ignatova2 min read
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Russia in the Crosshairs: How Cybersecurity Became a Macroeconomic Factor

Russia faces 14% of global cyberattacks despite accounting for just 3% of the world economy. We examine the scale of threats, economic damage from ransomware and APT attacks, major business vulnerabilities, and state-level defense measures.

Yulia Ignatova10 min read
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The Beer Paradox: Tariffs Target Imported Beer, but Domestic Brands Get More Expensive

Tariffs on imported beer have risen to €1.5 per liter, yet Russian beer prices have jumped 15%. We examine the paradox: how protectionism drives up consumer prices and why domestic producers aren't lowering their prices.

Yulia Ignatova7 min read
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RAM Shortage: Why Prices Are Breaking Records

RAM prices have surged 4.6-fold in six months due to a DRAM shortage. The causes of the crisis, its impact on graphics card and smartphone markets, and expert forecasts through 2028.

Valeria Novoselova5 min read
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Jewelry Goes Cross-Border: Why Russians Are Switching from Store Windows to Foreign Online Services

Analysis of Russia's jewelry market in 2025: cross-border trade surges fourfold amid slowing offline sales, impact of high credit rates, and a 6% decline in store numbers. Trends and forecasts.

Yulia Ignatova4 min read