The Beer Paradox: Tariffs Target Imported Beer, but Domestic Brands Get More Expensive
Tariffs on imported beer have risen to €1.5 per liter, yet Russian beer prices have jumped 15%. We examine the paradox: how protectionism drives up consumer prices and why domestic producers aren't lowering their prices.
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Prohibitive tariffs on imported beer from unfriendly countries have led to its price increase of 18.6% over the year, but paradoxically caused prices for Russian beer to rise as well—by an average of 15%. Experts attribute this to the increased cost of imported raw materials, higher excise taxes, labeling expenses, and most importantly—the disappearance of price competition from cheap European beer. In the end, the consumer pays: protectionism has not made the domestic product more affordable, but has only synchronously raised prices across the entire category.
Imports strangled by tariffs, while domestic prices rise at nearly the same pace
Starting September 2025, import duties on a range of beer products have been raised from €1 to €1.5 per liter, sharply undermining the economics of supplying European brands. This marks the third tariff increase. Initially, in April 2024, duties on beer from "unfriendly" countries were raised from a symbolic €0.018–0.04 to €0.1 per liter. Then on January 1, 2025, the tariff was increased even more dramatically—to €1 per liter. According to data from the price monitoring service "Tsenozavr," imported beer prices rose 18.6% in 2025. Against this backdrop, industry analysts estimate that the share of imported beer in the Russian market has fallen from 5–6% to 2–3% over two years.
But here's the paradox for consumers: domestic beer has also risen significantly in price over the year, even though no tariffs have been imposed on it. "Tsenozavr" records an average increase of +15% over the year, broken down by brand:
In other words, the state has restricted competitors, but consumers still see overall price increases on the shelf—both for "European" and "domestic" products. Why is this happening?
Production costs: where manufacturing is genuinely getting more expensive, and where it's just a convenient excuse
The industry's official line is simple: production costs are rising. The question is, by how muchare they actually rising, and what exactly is driving them up.
Imported raw materials and logistics
Key beer ingredients—hops, certain malts, and yeast—remain dependent on imports. According to industry association estimates, 95–98% of hops used in Russian brewing are of foreign origin (USA, Germany, Czech Republic). In 2025, prices for hops and specialty malt rose by an average of20%, partly due to logistics: direct supply chains have been replaced by routes through third countries, and freight costs on certain routes have increased by 30–40%.
"The key ingredient in beer—hops—is mostly foreign, no matter how you slice it. Yeast and specialty malts aren't produced in Russia either. Logistics costs have risen due to disrupted direct supply routes, because the chains now involve third countries. Brewers don't just arbitrarily raise wholesale prices with an attitude of 'since there's no imported beer, drink what we give you at triple the price.'"
Taxes, excise duties, and labeling
2025 brought yet another layer of costs to the industry. The excise tax on beer with strength up to 8.6% increased from 26 to 30 rubles per liter (+15.4%), and VAT is charged on top of this excise.
At the same time, mandatory "Honest Sign" labeling for beer and low-alcohol beverages has been launched. For breweries, this means purchasing and maintaining equipment, integrator services, and hiring additional staff. According to the editor-in-chief of the industry magazine RealBrewElena Tyukina:
"Companies are forced to buy equipment, integrator software, and hire additional personnel. At large plants, bottling line productivity has dropped 15–20%. And even integrators don't guarantee flawless operation: programs freeze, machines have to be manually adjusted when codes won't scan."
And expert Zhuravkov sums it up:
"Production costs are rising across the board: raw materials, equipment, payroll. Taxes aren't going down—quite the opposite. Plus there's Chestny Znak, excise taxes, VAT on top. Suppliers have already notified us about price increases of another 10–15% in 2026, so manufacturers have to build in a cushion ahead of time."
To say that producers "simply decided to cash in on the tariffs" is far too simplistic an explanation. Rising production costs are a fact. The real question is different: how has pricing policy changed now that tariffs have knocked some competitors out of the market?
Tariffs that backfire: when fighting imports makes Russian beer more expensive too
The formal goal of protective tariffs on imported beer is to support domestic producers. The practical effect: reduced competition and synchronized price increases across nearly the entire shelf.
Independent beer market expert Alexander Savitsky puts it as bluntly as possible:
"One of the most important factors in rising prices for domestic beer, besides increased production costs, payroll, and logistics, has been the sharp reduction in cheap imports: domestic producers no longer need to compete on price with inexpensive European beer. If the authorities hadn't introduced protective tariffs, prices for domestic varieties would be lower now."
Before the tariff hikes, cheap imported beer in major retail chains—from Germany, the Czech Republic, Belgium—served as a price anchor. Having several types of German or Czech lager on the shelf at moderate prices prevented Russian giants from endlessly inflating their wholesale prices: consumers could see a direct comparison.
Now that the imported lineup from unfriendly countries has sharply increased in price, and some brands have disappeared, the "anchor" is gone. Chinese beer has partially filled that role, but mainly in the lower price segment, not in the premium or familiar mid-price range where European brands once dominated.
The beer story isn't unique. In 2024, a similar scenario played out in the wine market. After increased tariffs were introduced on wines from unfriendly countries, FAS and industry analysts recorded price increases not only for imports but also for Russian wine. Domestic offerings rose an average of 12–17% over the year.
The situation attracted so much attention that the antimonopoly service conducted market monitoring. They found no formal cartel collusion, but they did acknowledge "synchronized price movements." The same thing is now happening in the beer market—only on a more mass-market scale and one more sensitive to consumers.
Elena Tyukina highlights another aspect of the beer situation:
"Imported beer sales accounted for only 4–6% of the market. To say that their exit alone caused unjustified price increases would be incorrect. But consumers lost the ability to buy the familiar beer they drank at bars or while traveling. Under such conditions, market mechanisms should be at work, not protectionist measures."
In other words, the tariffs didn't fix the imbalance—they simply redistributed it: imports either disappeared or became much more expensive, domestic prices rose in tandem, and the ultimate payer remains the same person at the checkout.
Control exists, relief doesn't: why regulatory "squeeze" drives up prices
Another storyline is the idea of "tighter control over brewers" to prevent them from exploiting the situation.
In practice, there's little room for additional oversight. The beer and non-alcoholic beverage industry is already one of the most heavily regulated in the food sector: EGAIS, Chestny Znak (digital labeling), tax control, inspections by Rospotrebnadzor and Rosalkogolregulirovanie, industry registries. Tyukina explains:
"The state has already regulated the industry to such an extent that oversight comes from all sides. The agencies have complete data on procurement, sales, and financial activity."
Zhuravkov adds:
"Any manufacturer can easily break down their honest cost structure for you—there are no secrets. If anything needs changing, it's reducing duplicate control elements, like the parallel existence of both EGAIS and labeling."
In other words, from a transparency standpoint, most of the work has already been done. But the more regulatory requirements and taxes there are, the more expensive the final product becomes. And as long as excise taxes keep rising, labeling remains mandatory, and imported raw materials grow costlier, the industry will pass the maximum burden onto retail prices.
Who pays for the beer paradox
By the end of 2025, the Russian beer market operates under a logic of "double pressure." On one hand, production costs are rising: raw materials, logistics, packaging, wages, excise taxes, labeling. On the other, competition from imports has been artificially curtailed, which removes some of the price constraints for domestic players.
The results are visible in the numbers:
imported beer prices are rising faster — roughly 18.6% year-over-year;
Russian beer — slightly slower, but still around 15%;
the share of imports in total market volume has fallen to 2–3%.
Experts aren't talking about "greed" per se, but rather about the interplay of regulatory decisions and economic incentives. Savitsky sums up the main takeaway:
"The absence of competition from imports is hitting consumers' wallets hardest. If there were no tariffs, domestic varieties would cost less today."
Essentially, the beer story is repeating the same logic we saw a year ago in the wine market. Protectionism implemented through prohibitive tariffs doesn't actually make domestic products cheaper — it triggers synchronized price increases across the entire category.
If excise taxes continue to rise in 2026, onerous labeling requirements remain in place, and imports stay locked out by prohibitive tariffs, the Russian pint has every chance of getting even more expensive — by another 10–12% — that's the price increase range market participants are projecting based on the new tax parameters.
The bottom line of the beer paradox looks like this: in fighting "foreign" beer, regulation has made domestic beer more expensive too. And as long as the equation includes neither lower tax burdens nor genuine expansion of competition, the one who pays for it will be the person who simply came to "grab a bottle for the evening."
