The End of 'Easy Money': Microloan Market Reaches Plateau

According to Central Bank data, the aggregate portfolio of microfinance organizations (MFOs) grew to 623 billion rubles by the end of 2024 (up 41% year-over-year). For comparison: in 2023, the portfolio increased by 22% to approximately 550 billion rubles.

However, in 2025 the regulator is already recording a slowdown in market growth. According to the Central Bank's review, the total value of microloans at the end of the third quarter of 2025 stood at 506 billion rubles (down 5% year-over-year). Industry associations and analysts expect that by the end of 2025, MFO portfolio growth will slow to 5–16%.

Regulation as a turning point

In the second half of 2025, the microfinance market faced a series of regulatory changes that significantly impacted MFO operational processes.

Starting September 1, 2025, measures came into effect prohibiting mass and automated calls to clients without their prior consent. During the same period, a "cooling-off period" mechanism was launched. Borrowers gain access to funds: after 4 hours for loan amounts from 50,000 to 200,000 rubles; after 48 hours for larger amounts.

Also in 2025, a self-exclusion mechanism for credits and loans was implemented, allowing citizens to voluntarily restrict the ability to take out loans in their name. According to analysts, the share of rejections due to active self-exclusion amounted to 1–2% of total applications.

Additionally, the regulator began phasing out the use of credit report data from credit bureaus (BKIs) as a source of information about borrower income when calculating the debt burden indicator (PDN), strengthening requirements for official income verification.

Financial results under pressure

The tightening of regulation coincided with a deterioration in the industry's financial performance. According to the Central Bank, net profit of MFOs in Q1 2025 came to 13 billion rubles, down 8% from the same period last year. At the same time, about a third of microfinance organizations ended the quarter with a loss.

Meanwhile, credit risk remains at elevated levels. The share of overdue debt exceeding 90 days reached 27.5% in Q1 2025, and in subsequent quarters, according to rating agency estimates, it increased to 28.3%.

Despite this, the small business lending segment showed more resilient dynamics: in the first half of 2025, loan origination volume in this segment grew 29%, reaching 72.8 billion rubles.

The new market configuration in 2026

The transition of some microfinance companies from MFK to MKK status came as a result of differences in when new regulatory requirements take effect. Starting March 1, 2026, MFKs are required to conduct biometric identification of borrowers for remote loan issuance, while for MKKs this requirement only comes into force on March 1, 2027. Changing status gives companies an extra year to adapt and postpone implementing costly technological solutions.

The key problem, according to market participants, lies not only in the cost of connecting to the Unified Biometric System, but also in its limited coverage. Only 3–4 million people have biometric data on file, while the active client base of MFOs stands at around 15 million borrowers. Moreover, according to VTsIOM data, 42% of Russians are unwilling to submit their biometrics, which creates a risk of declining online originations.

The financial burden is also significant: one-time costs for connecting to the UBS for large companies are estimated at up to 100 million rubles, while each query costs 9–20 rubles. Against the backdrop of simultaneous introduction of limits on the number of "expensive" loans and tighter reserve requirements, this reduces business margins.

Under these conditions, transitioning to MKK status is viewed not as a strategic move, but as a temporary measure allowing companies to reduce regulatory risks and preserve their client base, despite limitations on raising funds and scaling the business.

Consolidation instead of expansion

Against the backdrop of rising costs and declining profitability, the market is entering a phase of accelerated consolidation. As of December 1, 2025, the Central Bank's registry listed 853 microfinance organizations. According to Expert RA estimates, by the end of 2026 their number could fall to 700, meaning more than 15% of players will exit the market. In more conservative scenarios, market participants allow for the departure of up to 30–40% of MFOs over a two-to-three-year horizon.

The Central Bank also notes that the main contribution to portfolio growth in 2025 came from large MFOs that are part of banking and ecosystem groups, which have access to capital and the ability to invest in IT infrastructure and compliance.

The market is transforming from a mass-market "fast loans" segment into a narrower and more technology-driven niche, where scale, access to financing, and the ability to meet the regulator's growing requirements are becoming the key survival factors.