The Bill Without the Booze

Alcohol becomes the first item to cut back on

In January–June, sales of alcoholic beverages in the hotel, restaurant and catering (HoReCa) segment, excluding beer, cider, mead and similar drinks, declined by 42.4%, to 818,300 decaliters. Wine sales fell particularly sharply—down 44.8% to 361,000 decaliters. Sales of beverages with alcohol content above 9% decreased by 39.78%, to 447,300 decaliters.

At the same time, overall retail demand proved far more resilient. Alcohol sales in stores over the same period fell by just 0.65%. In other words, the main decline isn't in alcohol as a product, but in where people are buying it.

According to restaurant market data, the reason is primarily related to consumer habits. In the first half of the year, the number of checks at restaurants and bars across Russia fell by 4%, and in Moscow by 11%. People have been visiting establishments less frequently and are more cautious about spending during such visits.

Meanwhile, the average check continued to grow: in Russia it increased by 8% to 3,200 rubles, and in Moscow by 6% to 4,500 rubles. But a higher check total doesn't mean guests are spending more across all categories. On the contrary, alcohol is taking up less and less of the bill. Its share over the year dropped from 41% to 37% across Russia and from 37% to 32% in Moscow.

It's precisely this shift in spending structure, rather than simply a drop in visitor numbers, that's becoming the key signal for the restaurant market. Guests are still willing to pay for a restaurant visit, but they're choosing ever more carefully what exactly to spend their money on.

Restaurant markups become more noticeable

Alcohol turns out to be a convenient item to economize on also because the difference between its cost in a store versus a restaurant is particularly striking. According to estimates from market participants, restaurants can set markups on alcohol at 200–300%.

At these price levels, a bottle of wine or spirits can significantly inflate the final bill. When diners are trying to stay within a certain budget, it turns out to be easier to skip drinks than to forgo a main course. As a result, restaurant alcohol shifts from being a routine part of the order to a purchase that can be postponed or eliminated entirely.

Another option is to trade down to a cheaper category. Instead of wine or spirits, customers switch to less expensive drinks, while some banquet guests prefer to bring their own alcohol and pay a corkage fee. This way, the restaurant still collects money from the customer but loses one of the highest-margin components of the order.

It would be wrong to say that Russians have massively given up alcohol in 2026. The available data point to something else: consumers don't want to overpay for alcohol at restaurants and are shifting some of these purchases to cheaper channels.

Restaurants are losing not just customers, but locations

The sales decline is also tied to the fact that the foodservice market itself is shrinking. In March 2026, cities with populations over one million counted 7,200 restaurants—down 5% from a year earlier. The number of cafés fell 6% to 12,500, while bars dropped a full 11% to 5,900.

The contraction in bars is especially telling. In their business model, alcohol traditionally plays a major role, so the closure of such establishments directly reduces spirits sales volume. It turns out that the market decline is forming from two sides at once: customers are spending less on alcohol, and the number of places where it can be ordered is shrinking.

Industry difficulties are also evident in company data. In the first quarter of 2026, 11,200 foodservice companies were liquidated—up 31.28% from a year earlier. At the same time, 12,500 new companies were registered, up 20.84%. These figures don't necessarily indicate a shrinking number of market participants—rather, they show high business turnover. That said, the number of operating restaurants, cafés, and bars in cities with populations over one million has indeed declined.

For the alcohol market, this is particularly significant. Even if consumer habits aren't changing, the reduction in the number of restaurants and bars by itself decreases sales volume through this channel.

Restaurants will have to change their sales model

For establishments, the problem isn't just that they're selling less alcohol. Spirits have traditionally been an important part of restaurant economics: high markups allow them to boost revenue without substantially increasing food preparation costs.

Now this model has to be reconsidered. When guests stop ordering wine or spirits, restaurants need to compensate for the missing revenue with other items. That's why market players are talking about focusing on high-margin dishes, more affordable beverages, and new restaurant offerings.

At the same time, restaurants have to watch beverage prices more carefully. If prices are too high, customers may refuse to order altogether, whereas a more affordable option keeps the sale alive. For businesses, this means finding a balance between markup and guests' willingness to pay.

Ultimately, the restaurant market is facing not just a simple drop in alcohol sales, but a change in the usual order structure. Customers have become more attentive to the final bill and more selective about what they're willing to pay restaurant prices for. In this situation, alcohol has turned out to be one of the most vulnerable categories.

The main question now is how sustainable this shift will prove to be. If consumers get used to buying alcohol at stores while limiting themselves to food and cheaper drinks at restaurants, it will be difficult to restore alcohol's previous share of the check. For the food service industry, this means losing not just a portion of sales, but one of its traditional sources of high margins.