NOSTROY President: 'A 10% Mortgage Rate for the First Child Already Seems Quite High'

Anatoly Aksakov, chairman of the State Duma Committee on Financial Markets, has proposed introducing a tiered family mortgage system, linking the interest rate to the number of children in a family: 10% for the first child, 6% for the second, and 4% for the third. The idea is being actively discussed as a possible compromise between supporting families and reducing budget expenditures on subsidized programs.

The question, however, is whether such parameters would actually make mortgages affordable or lead to the opposite effect. We discussed this with the president of the National Association of Builders (NOSTROY) Anton Nikolaevich Glushkov.

"The 6% rate has proven its effectiveness"

According to the expert, the discussion about modernizing the family mortgage has been ongoing for several years and is connected to attempts to transform this instrument into not only a housing support measure but also a genuine demographic incentive.

"That's why the idea being actively discussed today is the development of a long-standing concept. At the same time, the main question remains determining the threshold values—those very rate 'steps' for the population."

There's already a key benchmark here—the 6% rate currently applied in the existing family mortgage program.

"The experience of the past year and a half to two years has clearly demonstrated that a rate of 6% is affordable for citizens and effectively stimulates demand. The statistics prove it—more than 80% of transactions in the primary housing market across the country are made using the subsidized family mortgage."

The Family Mortgage program has indeed become a key driver of housing demand in recent years, with the government-subsidized rate of up to 6% remaining in effect until 2030. This program was extended on the instruction of the Russian president and applies to families with children purchasing housing from developers or for individual home construction.

It's important to note that Russia's overall mortgage lending market is currently experiencing a slowdown: according to Bank of Russia data, the volume of mortgage loans issued fell by approximately 9% to 4.3 trillion rubles by the end of 2025.

Why 10% is too high for the "first step"

Aksakov's proposal to set the rate at 10% for the first child raises serious doubts among developers and industry experts. Anton Glushkov considers such a rate excessive under current macroeconomic conditions.

"As things stand today, the proposed tiered structure—which sets the rate at 10% even for the first child—seems quite high. I think this will lead to a contraction in demand in the primary market."

In his assessment, we're not talking about a minor correction, but rather a significant cooling of the market.

"So under current conditions, there's certainly no reason to talk about price growth driven by increased demand. And if you look at the statistics, transaction volumes in the primary market should decline by at least 20% due to reduced accessibility of this preferential program."

Thus, instead of redistributing demand between segments, the market may see an overall decline.

Rising prices or falling affordability?

One risk being discussed around the "tiered" mortgage idea is a potential increase in prices for housing suitable for families with two or more children. However, according to NOSTROY's assessment, at a 10% rate this scenario appears unlikely.

A reduction in the number of borrowers willing to take out mortgages on such terms is more likely to restrain the market than accelerate it. In this case, the effect of subsidies for large families may be offset by an overall decline in buyer activity.

A separate question concerns the role of maternity capital. According to 2025 data, maternity capital for the first child amounts to about 678 thousand rubles, and for the second child nearly 893 thousand rubles—which represents less than 10–15% of a typical down payment for a mortgage. With tighter rate conditions and persistently high housing prices, its significance as an incentive will diminish.

Taken together—a high rate at the initial stage, strict bank requirements, and limited impact of maternity capital—family mortgages risk losing their appeal to the very people for whom they were originally created.