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Read original →Expert Yushkov: Kazakhstan's Economy Will Suffer from CPC Disruptions
Following attacks on tankers, the CPC has halted oil loading. An expert weighs in on the consequences for Kazakhstan and the global oil market.
In recent days, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) has come under fire: tankers transporting oil through the CPC system have been hit by drone attacks. As a result, loading operations at the Black Sea terminal have been suspended. Kazakhstan's Ministry of Energy reported that production and technical facilities continue to operate normally, but shipping in the region remains unsafe.
For Kazakhstan, this is not just a temporary logistics disruption: CPC is the largest export route for Kazakh oil, accounting for 80% of the republic's total oil exports.
The pipeline, stretching more than 1,500 kilometers, connects oil fields in Western Kazakhstan with a marine terminal near Novorossiysk. It transports over 60 million tons of oil annually, of which more than 50 million tons comes from Kazakhstan alone, and in 2025 an all-time pumping record was set—70.52 million tons passed through CPC. The world's largest oil companies also profit from CPC operations: consortium participants developing Kazakh fields include Chevron, ExxonMobil, Eni, Shell, and TotalEnergies.
Blow to Kazakhstan's Economy
Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told Argument Media that the consequences of the CPC shutdown will be felt on two levels.
First and foremost, international consortia developing Kazakhstan's largest fields—Tengiz, Karachaganak, and Kashagan—will suffer. They export the bulk of their oil production through CPC under production sharing agreements.
But the problem extends beyond the interests of oil companies. The oil sector accounts for roughly 8-9% of Kazakhstan's GDP, so reduced production and exports will inevitably lead to lower budget revenues.
"Kazakhstan itself as a state will also suffer. Yes, the main problems arise for the consortia developing the fields, but as a result they will reduce payments to Kazakhstan itself. Budget revenues and the country's economy will take a hit."
Are There Alternatives?
Formally, Kazakhstan has several alternative export routes, but none of them can fully replace CPC.
