Expert Samorodov: October 2025 Up 35% on September 2025. A Record Month This Year

October's 6% sales decline creates a deceptive impression that the market is in decline. Yet behind this figure lies a different picture. Automotive industry expert Artem Samorodov noted:

"The new car market in October fell just 2% against the high base of last October. This isn't a drop—quite the opposite, it's growth. October 2025 is 35% better than September 2025. It's a record month this year".

The reason for such a "record" isn't a sudden Russian love affair with new cars, but a factor that's become classic in recent years: fear of future price increases. In this case—the announced increase in the recycling fee, which prompted many buyers to rush their purchases. Previously calculated by the formula: base rate (20,000 rubles) × coefficient depending on engine displacement and vehicle age, now engine power will become the key parameter. In September alone, used car sales in Russia grew to 553,300 units, up 4.5% year-over-year.

"People, fearing price increases, were buying up everything in sight. As a result, prices rose and fears of missing out intensified. All of this was amplified by product shortages," the expert notes.

According to the expert, this year's sales decline was followed by price reductions, which still couldn't rev the market up to its usual volumes in the first half of the year. Only fears of new price hikes stimulated a revival. Prices are so high that their reduction doesn't trigger a sales surge. Even government support measures, including subsidized auto loans with a 20% discount (up to 25% in the Far East), for which 34 billion rubles were allocated, couldn't help AvtoVAZ avoid a sales decline this year. It's a vicious circle: the market only reacts to negative stimuli—risks of cost increases—but ignores positive ones—actual price cuts and subsidized loans.

But despite October's year-over-year decline, the AEB's forecast of 1.28 million car sales by the end of 2025 looks realistic.

"Over 10 months, approximately 1.06 million new passenger cars have been registered in the country. There are still 2 months ahead, and to reach the goal of 1.28 million, we only need to sell 220,000. With a high degree of probability, we'll simply cross that threshold on the year-end factor and additional registrations of cars that managed to arrive from abroad in October," Samorodov is confident.

The picture for early 2026 looks different. That same "fear" that spurred sales in September-October means demand from future periods has been realized.

"We can almost certainly assume that the beginning of the year will be extremely tense in the market. The only thing that could save the market is a sharp price drop and zero-interest loans—meaning nothing will save it," the expert concludes.