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Read original →The Fate of Druzhba: Can Hungary and Slovakia Protect Their Energy Lifeline?
An analysis of the situation surrounding the Druzhba pipeline following drone attacks: impact on oil prices, the EU and US position, and energy security prospects for Hungary and Slovakia. Expert assessments and forecasts.
AI summary
The Druzhba pipeline, which provides over 80% of oil imports for Hungary and Slovakia, has come under threat due to a series of drone attacks on infrastructure in the Bryansk region. Unlike Nord Stream, the land-based pipeline can be quickly repaired, however systematic strikes are turning it into an instrument of political pressure. The fate of Druzhba depends on the US position and Washington's willingness to influence Kyiv for the sake of energy security of its allies in the EU.
The Story of Our Druzhba
The pipeline was commissioned back in 1964 and stretches more than 4,000 kilometers: from Samara Oblast through Bryansk and Belarus to Ukraine, and from there to Hungary, Slovakia, Czechia, and Germany. Its design capacity exceeds 1.2 million barrels per day, though in recent years actual throughput has fallen to 250,000–300,000 barrels. According to Eurostat, more than 80% of oil imports to Hungary and Slovakia came through this very route. Meanwhile, other EU countries have effectively stopped receiving oil via Druzhba—deliveries are now limited to Hungary and Slovakia. For Budapest and Bratislava, Druzhba isn't just a pipeline—it's a matter of energy security.
Will It Follow Nord Stream's Fate?
Comparisons with the 2022 sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipeline are inevitable. But Druzhba has one fundamental difference: a land-based pipeline can be repaired faster than an undersea one. In 2023–2024, Bryansk Oblast was already targeted by drone attacks, and pumping was restored within days. However, a series of systematic attacks is turning the pipeline into leverage against Europe.
The editors of the Telegram channel "KB.Ekonomika" believe that Druzhba's fate largely depends on the U.S. position. "Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's office has already stated that Donald Trump is aware of the strikes and has expressed displeasure with what's happening. Unlike the Nord Stream situation, where Germany and the U.S. had a longstanding conflict over the gas pipeline, the picture is different now. The Trump administration needs to maintain its 'peacemaker' image: if it condemns Russian strikes on Ukraine, it's logical to condemn Ukrainian attacks as well. Intuitively, it seems Druzhba's fate won't repeat the 'Streams' scenario—the price for the EU is too high," the channel's analysts note.