Central banks are planning to reduce the dollar's share in their reserves for the first time. Analysis of the OMFIF study: the role of gold, prospects for the yuan and euro, impact on global markets, and the real scale of de-dollarization.
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Central banks have for the first time considered reducing the share of the dollar in reserves, giving preference to gold amid geopolitical risks. However, a full-fledged alternative to the American currency does not yet exist—neither the yuan nor the euro can offer comparable liquidity and market depth. The dedollarization process has been proceeding gradually for more than 20 years and represents risk diversification rather than a change in global financial leadership.
Central banks are increasingly considering reducing the dollar's share in their international reserves. This is the conclusion reached by the authors of the annual Global Public Investor 2025 study, prepared by the OMFIF analytical center.
The survey included 90 central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and public pension funds managing approximately $10 trillion in assets. For the first time, the number of those planning to reduce the dollar's share over the next ten years exceeded the number of those intending to increase it. At the same time, 79% of participants believe that the global monetary system is gradually becoming multipolar, with gold named as the primary asset for reserve accumulation over the next two years.
The dollar is losing share, but not leadership
It's still too early to say that the dollar is losing its status as the world's primary reserve currency. Its share in international reserves is gradually declining, but this has been happening for quite some time. According to International Monetary Fund data, in the first quarter of 2025, the dollar accounted for 57.7% of official global reserves. For comparison: in the early 2000s, the figure exceeded 70%, meaning this process has been unfolding gradually for over 20 years.
At the same time, no full-fledged replacement for the dollar has yet emerged. No other currency can offer the same scale and liquidity of financial markets. U.S. Treasury bonds remain the largest and most sought-after instrument for reserve placement, and the dollar itself continues to play a key role in international trade, settlements, and global financial markets.
As noted by analyst and author of the Telegram channel "Sobachye serdtse"Alexander Belov, current processes cannot yet be considered full-scale de-dollarization.
"True de-dollarization can be recorded at the moment when central banks stop using the dollar as the primary settlement and reserve currency in day-to-day operations. Reserve diversification is usually limited to reducing the dollar's share without changing the structure of settlements and capital markets."
According to him, the key threshold lies much deeper than simple reserve reallocation and is defined by three main indicators: the emergence of multilateral clearing, the formation of deep capital markets in alternative currencies, and a reduction in the dollar's role not only in international reserves but also in trade settlements. However, these processes are currently developing only in isolated corridors, so what's happening should be viewed primarily as diversification and reduction of sanctions risks.
A similar assessment comes from independent analyst and author of the Telegram channel "angry bonds"Dmitry Adamidov. According to him, what's happening today is merely the first stage of a much longer process.
"The first phase of de-dollarization is precisely this—diversification of reserves and expansion of the currencies used for settlements. The second important phase should be decoupling commodity prices from the dollar, but that's not yet on the agenda."
Moreover, the American currency remains central to the global financial system. According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the dollar is involved in nearly 88% of all transactions on the global Forex market, which continues to make it the primary currency for international settlements and trade.
Why Central Banks Are Seeking Alternatives
Today, central banks are changing the structure of their reserves not so much for economic reasons as for political ones. After the sanctions of recent years—against Russia, for example—many countries have begun questioning how safe it is to keep a significant portion of their savings in a single asset or currency, particularly given the risks of having international currency (dollar) reserves frozen. This is why increasing attention is being paid to diversification—spreading reserves across different currencies and assets.
As OMFIF (an independent think tank) notes, regulators' decisions are increasingly influenced by geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding U.S. foreign policy. It's precisely these factors that are forcing central banks to reconsider their approaches to reserve management.
The Big Winner—Gold
The beneficiary of central banks' changing reserve policies remains gold. According to OMFIF, it's already part of the reserves of 82% of regulators, and about a third of survey participants plan to increase their investments in the precious metal over the next year or two.
This trend is confirmed by data from the World Gold Council. In 2025, central banks purchased a net 863 tons of gold. While this is below the record volumes exceeding 1,000 tons in each of the previous three years, the figure is nearly double the 2010–2021 average of 473 tons.
Alexander Belov believes that the precious metal is already performing some of the functions of a reserve asset.
"Gold already serves as a partial alternative to dollar reserves, primarily as a safe-haven asset."
However, it cannot yet fully replace the dollar.
"At the same time, gold remains an inconvenient instrument for day-to-day international settlements and accumulation of trade surpluses due to the absence of developed capital markets."
Dmitry Adamidov takes a more optimistic view of gold's prospects.
"More likely this will happen in 3–4 years, not sooner."
Why the yuan and euro cannot yet replace the dollar
The euro and Chinese yuan are most often cited as potential alternatives. However, both currencies face fundamental limitations.
According to SWIFT data, in international payments as of December 2025, the U.S. dollar maintained its dominance with a share of around 50.5%, remaining the primary settlement currency of the global system. The euro held second place with a share of approximately 21.9%, trailing the dollar noticeably but steadily maintaining its position as the key alternative currency. The Chinese yuan's share remained substantially lower—around 2.7%.
By March 2026, the settlement structure had changed only slightly: the dollar's share increased to 51.1%, the euro remained around 21%, and the yuan held its position within several percentage points, trailing not only the dollar and euro but also several other currencies—the pound sterling and the yen.
According to OMFIF, virtually all survey participants view the yuan as an effective instrument for reserve diversification. However, the majority simultaneously acknowledge the existence of serious structural constraints.
According to Alexander Belov, the main problem with the Chinese currency remains the absence of full capital mobility.
"The yuan is constrained by the lack of free convertibility on the capital account, which limits opportunities for investing accumulated surpluses."
According to him, the euro's potential as an alternative reserve currency remains limited due to the absence of a unified fiscal policy and a deep integrated capital market in the eurozone.
Dmitry Adamidov holds a similar view regarding the prospects of the Chinese currency.
"The yuan is categorically unprepared for reserve status. First, because of capital controls, and second, domestic yuan-denominated debt relative to GDP is just as large as U.S. dollar debt—there's no point in swapping one problem for another."
What will change for global markets
Experts agree that a declining dollar share won't lead to sudden shocks. Changes will occur gradually, though the consequences may manifest through a redistribution of capital flows.
According to Alexander Belov, a gradual reduction in demand for U.S. Treasury bonds could increase volatility in the American debt market.
"Weakening demand for U.S. Treasury bonds from foreign central banks could amplify volatility in the government debt market and create additional pressure on the dollar in the medium term."
He also notes that such processes may be accompanied by growing interest in real assets, particularly gold.
Dmitry Adamidov, by contrast, believes the key factor won't be the reduction in dollar reserves itself, but rather a potential financial crisis.
"The decline of the dollar in reserves by itself won't have any impact—what will matter is a financial crisis and the collapse of the eurodollar system, which I expect within the next year or two. U.S. and EU markets will fall, commodity markets will rise (in dollar terms)."
De-dollarization may prove less sweeping than it appears
Right now, most objective indicators point not to a change in the global monetary system, but rather to its gradual evolution. As Alexander Belov emphasizes, the main indicator isn't reserves themselves, but international settlements.
"The most reliable indicators of real change are the growing share of the yuan in trade finance, increased settlement volumes in national currencies across key corridors, and sustained central bank gold purchases."
According to him, a simple reduction in the dollar's share of reserves doesn't yet alter the fundamental picture of the global financial system.
In Dmitry Adamidov's view, the market is more likely underestimating the scale of changes underway, though accurately assessing them has become difficult due to the increased unpredictability of U.S. policy, making any forecast of dedollarization's pace highly uncertain.
As long as the global financial system lacks a full-fledged alternative to the dollar, what we're seeing is more a redistribution of risks than a changing of the guard. Central banks are gradually expanding their toolkit of reserve instruments, increasing gold holdings, and cautiously raising their exposure to the yuan, euro, and currencies of smaller developed economies. Yet the dollar retains key advantages—depth of financial markets, high liquidity, and a leading role in global trade. That's precisely why the dedollarization process, even if it continues, will likely remain a long and evolutionary one rather than revolutionary.
