This text is an automatic translation from Русский. It was generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Read original →Why banks have returned to raising deposit rates after their rate-cutting strategy failed. How the new law insuring deposits up to 2.8 million rubles will reshape the market. Where Russians are moving their money in search of better terms.
Russian banks reversed their trend of lowering deposit rates and raised them again to 16-17% per annum after the failure of their strategy to cut rates ahead of the Central Bank's key rate. Depositors began actively moving funds between banks in search of better terms, turning into "nomadic depositors." On October 30, a law came into effect increasing insurance coverage to 2.8 million rubles for long-term deposits, which should stimulate the inflow of "long-term" money into the banking system.
Back in April 2025, banks began cutting rates on savings accounts despite the Central Bank maintaining its key rate at 21%. VTB reduced the yield on its "VTB-Account" to 19% per annum (down from 23%). Sberbank lowered its savings account rate to 18% from 22%, while T-Bank and Rosselkhozbank cut their maximum rates to 19% and 19.5% per annum respectively. At the time, banks were anticipating an easing of monetary policy.
In June, the Central Bank lowered the rate by 1 percentage point (to 20%), with the next move coming only in August—down to 18%. So ahead of the Central Bank's September meeting, banks uniformly continued cutting rates, expecting the regulator to lower the key rate by more than 2 percentage points. However, on September 12, the regulator decided to cut the key rate by just 1 percentage point, to 17%, and the inflow of Russian citizens' funds into bank deposits declined. In September this year, the volume of new deposits fell roughly 22-fold (to 33 billion rubles) compared to July (752 billion rubles).
Realizing that their actions weren't aligned with Central Bank policy, banks reversed course and began raising deposit rates again. Today, short-term promotional deposits are once again reaching 16–17% per annum. For example, VTB raised its ceiling rate on long-term deposits to 15%, Dom.RF increased rates on three-month deposits to 17% per annum, and Absolut now offers 15% for six months and 13.5% for a year. This synchronized rate increase by banks is a tactical response to the failure of their previous strategy.
The sharp rise in attractive offers from banks gave depositors more choice. As a result, several banks saw a slight decline in their deposit portfolios in September: VTB's deposit volume decreased by 1.2%, Sovcombank's by 2.8%, and Gazprombank's by 0.8%. However, this doesn't mean people are pulling their money out of banks—they're seeking better terms. For instance, Alfa-Bank saw deposit growth of +4%, while Dom.RF posted +1.9%.
It might seem that fund mobility between banks poses a risk to the industry. But that's not the case—the money stays within the banking system. Experts believe the real danger isn't funds moving between different banks, but situations where depositors withdraw money from deposits entirely, converting it to cash or investing in the stock market.
All of this points to a new type of financial behavior—the "nomadic depositor." Banks now buy Russian customers' loyalty with the most attractive rates, primarily on short-term "promotional deposits" that today reach 16–17% per annum.
Very conveniently for banks, a law came into effect on October 30, 2025, raising the insurance coverage from the Deposit Insurance Agency (DIA) on ruble non-callable deposits with terms exceeding three years from 1.4 to 2.8 million rubles. For other deposits, the limit remained unchanged at 1.4 million rubles. And if someone places funds in a non-callable certificate for a term exceeding three years while also holding a regular deposit, they can effectively have guarantees of up to approximately 4.2 million rubles in a single bank.
The law's purpose is clear. First, it creates an incentive for "long money." Banks gain the ability to attract more stable liabilities. Depositors can't simply withdraw their funds immediately, which reduces the risk of rapid outflows and improves the maturity profile of liabilities. Second, it boosts depositor confidence. Raising the insurance cap increases the guarantee of savings protection for those willing to keep their money longer and in less flexible forms. The offering should be more competitive against alternatives (bonds, savings accounts).
The current "deposit season" with its high rates is a symptom of deep uncertainty. Banks are forced to pay more for short-term deposits, while Russians refuse long-term commitments, and the regulator and government are trying to stimulate inflows of "long" liquidity through targeted measures.
All market participants have essentially frozen, waiting for the same thing—a clear signal that the monetary policy cycle is turning. Once it becomes apparent that the key rate is heading down and risks are declining, people will start opening two- to three-year deposits again.