This text is an automatic translation from Русский. It was generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
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This text is an automatic translation from Русский. It was generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Read original →Expert Oleg Kuzmichev explains that banks are threatened not by deposit migration between credit institutions, but by a complete withdrawal of money from deposits. Analysis of the deposit situation in September 2025 and forecast for long-term deposits.
By the end of September, several banks experienced a slight decline in their deposit portfolios: VTB's deposit volume decreased by 1.2%, Sovcombank by 2.8%, and Gazprombank by 0.8%. However, this doesn't mean people are pulling their money out of banks—they're searching for better terms. For example, Alfa-Bank saw deposit growth of +4%, while Dom.RF posted +1.9%. Private investor Oleg Kuzmichev notes that this phenomenon is a normal situation in a transparent market economy:
"Fish look for deeper waters, people look for better conditions. If you can use some aggregator to find the highest growth, the highest return, you go there. Finuslugi, Banki.ru — everyone's doing this now. Basically, it's just financial literacy—it's growing."
With the introduction of the Fast Payment System (FPS) and the increase in bank-to-bank transfer limits (up to 30 million rubles), people have become free to move funds between banks, selecting the most favorable terms. Some experts believe this poses a direct threat to banks, since they use deposit funds for lending. However, Kuzmichev is confident:
"Banks are threatened not by money moving between them, but when depositors leave deposits altogether—into cash or to the stock exchange. That's a real outflow," Kuzmichev explains.
In September 2025, the volume of new deposits fell by approximately 22 times (33 billion rubles) compared to July (752 billion rubles). The inflow of new money is decreasing, so banks are adapting by competing with promotional offers and rates on short-term deposits up to 16% annually. Against this backdrop, however, long-term deposits are suffering: this is because people aren't willing to lock up money for extended periods amid an unstable key rate. When will confidence in long-term deposits return? The expert is certain: only when the economy gives a clear signal of stabilization.
"As soon as it becomes clear that the key rate is heading down and risks are declining, people will start opening two- to three-year deposits again. Right now, short-term deposits are more profitable—but that's temporary," Kuzmichev says.