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Read original →A Cautious Budget-2026: Stabilizing Borrowing
Analysis of the 2026 budget draft: how reducing the deficit from 2.6% to 1.6% of GDP and stabilizing borrowing creates conditions for lowering the key rate and economic growth while maintaining low public debt.
A Safe Deficit as a Signal of Confidence
In the current version of the 2026 budget draft presented by the government, Russia is expected to have expenditures around 44.1 trillion rubles and revenues of 40.3 trillion rubles. The deficit — that very 1.6% of GDP planned by the government. Moreover, by all international standards, the deficit is even below recommended international norms, as experts point out. In a conversation with "Аргумент Медиа" Associate Professor at the Department of Public Finance at the Financial Faculty of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Светлана Демидова emphasizes:
"The deficit size of 1.6% can indeed be assessed as a relatively safe level, especially against the backdrop of the Maastricht criterion for EU countries of 3%. Nevertheless, statements about deficit control indicate the authorities' commitment to normalizing fiscal policy".
At the same time, financier Александр Кузнецов told "Аргумент Медиа" that the Finance Ministry's current task is to reduce the budget deficit, strengthen resilience to consequences from possible sanctions, and increase business economic activity.
"Together with easing monetary policy, this will strengthen financial sovereignty", the expert emphasized.
Predictable budget deficit growth and the associated increase in external borrowing are especially critical for Russia right now, as they allow maintaining a balance between the need to finance key state objectives and prevent strengthening inflationary processes, which is particularly relevant based on the 2025 example.
Borrowing Without Overheating. The 2025 Experience
Initially, the 2025 budget planned a deficit at 0.5% of GDP, or about 1.2 trillion rubles. However, during the year it grew almost fivefold — to 2.6% of GDP (5.7 trillion rubles), due to reduced revenues from oil and gas receipts and increased spending on social measures and defense industry. The deficit growth in 2025 was accompanied by an increase in net borrowing of 2.2 trillion rubles (to 5.4 trillion rubles total). Financial markets expert Ольга Гогаладзе told "Аргумент Медиа":
"The deficit increased both due to rising expenditures and declining revenues. In particular, the problem is created by a strong ruble coupled with low oil prices. At the same time, the budget needs money to ensure national security