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Read original →Bitcoin at a Crossroads: Correction or the Start of a New Cycle
Analysis of Bitcoin's November 2025 decline: reasons behind the correction, $530 million in ETF outflows, $1.4 billion in liquidations, and forecasts for recovery to $115–120K. What's next for the crypto market?
AI summary
Bitcoin experienced a significant correction for the first time in a long while, dropping below $104,000 amid mass outflows from institutional ETFs and $1.4 billion in liquidations. The Fear Index fell to a level of 21, indicating extreme panic among traders, however analysts view the current decline as a breather before a possible recovery, rather than the end of the bull cycle.
Red October and Anxious November
After nearly continuous growth since the start of the year, bitcoin has for the first time in a long while felt a loss of altitude. On the morning of November 4, its price dropped below $104,000—a three-week low and nearly 6% below the previous day's level. Ethereum lost over 11% in 24 hours, while the total crypto market capitalization shrank to $3.45 trillion.
For a market that had only been rising and delighting investors, this drop came as a surprise. The question is: is this a trend reversal downward, or simply a pause before the next sharp rally?
Institutional Season: When the Funds Entered the Game
The main change now is that bitcoin has become an official and recognized asset. While it used to attract mainly enthusiasts, since 2024 major funds have been adding it to their portfolios. Now it can be purchased like ordinary stocks, through specialized exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
These funds have become one of the key growth drivers: in 2024, cumulative inflows into bitcoin ETFs reached nearly $6 billion. But in October and early November 2025, the trend reversed. According to Farside Investors, net outflows from bitcoin ETFs totaled $530.9 million on October 16, and another $187 million on November 3.
Institutional investors typically act rationally: position reductions often signal expectations of a correction. At the same time, Ethereum ETFs are also seeing outflows (–$136 million), while Solana funds are showing inflows of around $70 million—a clear portfolio rebalancing.