22% VAT on Foreign Parcels: Quiet Protectionism Against China

Abruptly or Gradually—Either Way, the Customer Pays

The Ministry of Industry and Tradehas backedthe introduction of a full 22% rate on foreign online orders starting immediately in 2027. The Ministry of Finance proposes a phased schedule—5% in 2027, 10% in 2028, 15% in 2029, and 20% from 2030 onward. For marketplace sellers and foreign partners in Russian e-commerce, the difference is critical: will they have time to restructure their logistics? For the customer, there is no difference: by 2030, the figure on the receipt will be the same either way. All of this comes on top of the already implemented increase in the base VAT rate from 20% to 22% as of January 1, 2026—the tax burden first equalized domestically, and now extends to cross-border transactions.

The push for accelerated implementation came from Russian manufacturers and retail chains. The Russian Union of Leather and Footwear ManufacturersaskedMikhail Mishustin to introduce the 22% rate all at once starting in 2027. The main argument: footwear production in Russia fell 11% in January–February 2026. However, this is less a consequence of imports than a symptom of another problem: the Central Bank's key rate remains at 14.5%, consumer lending has contracted, and demand has shifted to the budget segment—and the budget segment is largely Chinese.

Recycling Fee as a Dress Rehearsal

The automotive market has already seen this playbook in action. The sharp increase in recycling fee rates as of December 1, 2025, was officially presented as support for localization: the word "China" wasn't mentioned in the rationale at all. Meanwhile, it was precisely Chinese models that accounted for the bulk of imports to individuals by late 2024—and they took the hardest hit. According to Autostat, in January–October 2025, imports of new passenger cars to Russiafellby 64%, and trucks by more than 90%. The paradox is that during the same period, Chinese automakers globally increased sales by 9%, while sales of new Chinese-assembled cars in Russia dropped 40%. The same scenario is being set up for marketplaces: only instead of passenger cars, the targets now are sneakers for 1,500 rubles and earbuds for 800.

Europe Did the Same Thing—Just More Loudly

In November 2025, the EU Councilagreedto eliminate the €150 duty-free threshold two years ahead of schedule. The platforms targeted by these measures were named explicitly: Chinese retailers Temu, Shein, and AliExpress. In 2024, the EU4.6 billion parcels valued under €150 (roughly 12 million per day), with 90% of them coming from China.