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Read original →Depositor Strategy: How to Play the Central Bank's Pause
Experts predict the Central Bank will pause on February 13 and lower the key rate to 12-13% by the end of 2026. How depositors can lock in high yields: tactics for placing deposits and choosing the best bank offers.
AI summary
The Bank of Russia will likely pause at its meeting on February 13, but will continue easing monetary policy in 2026. The key rate may fall to 12-13% by year-end, which will lead to lower deposit yields. Depositors are advised to split their funds into portions and lock in current high rates before official decisions by the regulator.
February Pause as a Strategic Move
In my view, at its upcoming meeting on February 13, the Bank of Russia will most likely hit pause. The regulator needs to confirm that the notable inflation spike at the start of the year is temporary and doesn't require immediate policy tightening. In this situation, a wait-and-see approach will allow for a more accurate assessment of price dynamics and inflation expectations.
However, a pause doesn't signal a change in the overall trend. In 2026, the Bank of Russia will continue easing monetary policy, and by year-end the key rate could fall to the 12-13% range. This would mean a further gradual decline in bank deposit yields.
The Deposit Market Won't Wait for Official Decisions
It's important to understand that even if the key rate remains unchanged in February, the deposit market won't freeze. Stabilization of deposit rates may only last for a short period. Future dynamics will be determined not only by formal Central Bank decisions, but also by signals about the future trajectory of monetary policy.
Banks traditionally look not only at the current key rate level, but also at market expectations. If financial market participants are confident in further policy easing, credit institutions will begin lowering deposit yields in advance, without waiting for official regulatory decisions.
What Should Depositors Do Now?
In the current situation, a rational strategy for those planning to place significant funds in deposits could be to split the amount into several parts. It makes sense to place the first portion before the February Central Bank meeting, locking in current rates. If the regulator gives "dovish" signals at the meeting, confirming a course toward further easing, banks may start lowering rates within the coming weeks.
The second portion of funds can be held back for placement after receiving clearer signals about key rate dynamics. If, contrary to expectations, the Central Bank decides to continue tightening policy (which is unlikely but can't be completely ruled out), there will be an opportunity to place the remaining funds at higher rates.
Special attention should be paid to seasonal promotional offers from banks, which they often launch at the start of the year. Some may offer premiums above standard rates, allowing for additional income regardless of regulatory decisions.
In any case, 2026 promises to be a period of gradual deposit rate decline, and those who want to lock in high yields for an extended period should act without delay.