Brazil-Russia Agricultural Cooperation

Introduction

This article examines how agricultural relations between Brazil and Russia have evolved against the backdrop of geopolitical shifts since 2022 and the growing role of BRICS. During this period, bilateral trade surged from $4.2 billion in 2018 to a record $12.4 billion in 2024. This growth is rooted in the structural characteristics of both economies: Brazil ranks among the world's leading agricultural exporters, while Russia holds a major position in the global fertilizer market—a critical input for Brazil's agricultural sector.

The study analyzes trade flows, revealed comparative advantage (RCA) indicators, and the institutional framework of cooperation. This allows us to assess the partnership's impact on both economies, identify existing imbalances, and explore potential scenarios for future development depending on the geopolitical environment.

The findings show that while the partnership delivers significant benefits to Brazilian agribusiness, it simultaneously deepens the country's import dependence, creating long-term risks that demand attention from policymakers.

1. A Partnership Reshaped by Geopolitics

Over the past decade, economic relations between Brazil and Russia have undergone significant transformation, with the pace of convergence and expanded cooperation accelerating markedly after 2022. What once appeared as limited commodity trade and sporadic diplomatic contact has gradually evolved into a strategic partnership built on complementary agricultural markets and increasingly close coordination within BRICS.

The primary driver of these changes has been the geopolitical upheaval following the outbreak of conflict in Ukraine and the imposition of Western sanctions on Russia. As traditional trade routes to Europe and North America became less accessible and more costly for Moscow, Russia began actively redirecting trade toward the Global South and East. In this context, Brazil emerged as a natural partner: the country did not join Western sanctions, has been a BRICS member since the bloc's inception, and remains one of the world's largest agricultural exporters.