Brazil-Russia Agricultural Cooperation

Introduction

This article examines how agricultural relations between Brazil and Russia have evolved against the backdrop of geopolitical shifts since 2022 and the growing role of BRICS. During this period, bilateral trade surged from $4.2 billion in 2018 to a record $12.4 billion in 2024. This growth is rooted in the structural characteristics of both economies: Brazil ranks among the world's leading agricultural exporters, while Russia holds a major position in the global fertilizer market—a critical input for Brazil's agricultural sector.

The study analyzes trade flows, revealed comparative advantage (RCA) indicators, and the institutional framework of cooperation. This allows us to assess the partnership's impact on both economies, identify existing imbalances, and explore potential scenarios for future development depending on the geopolitical environment.

The findings show that while the partnership delivers significant benefits to Brazilian agribusiness, it simultaneously deepens the country's import dependence, creating long-term risks that demand attention from policymakers.

1. A Partnership Reshaped by Geopolitics

Over the past decade, economic relations between Brazil and Russia have undergone significant transformation, with the pace of convergence and expanded cooperation accelerating markedly after 2022. What once appeared as limited commodity trade and sporadic diplomatic contact has gradually evolved into a strategic partnership built on complementary agricultural markets and increasingly close coordination within BRICS.

The primary driver of these changes has been the geopolitical upheaval following the outbreak of conflict in Ukraine and the imposition of Western sanctions on Russia. As traditional trade routes to Europe and North America became less accessible and more costly for Moscow, Russia began actively redirecting trade toward the Global South and East. In this context, Brazil emerged as a natural partner: the country did not join Western sanctions, has been a BRICS member since the bloc's inception, and remains one of the world's largest agricultural exporters.

For Brazil, cooperation with Russia has proven equally vital. Russia supplies nearly 30% of Brazil's fertilizer imports, which are directly tied to the production of soybeans, poultry, beef, and coffee—the country's key export commodities. Any serious disruption in fertilizer supplies could affect not only Brazilian agriculture but global food prices as well. It is precisely this interdependence—Brazilian food exports and Russian fertilizer supplies—that forms the foundation of bilateral relations.

2. Trade Flow Dynamics

2.1. Bilateral Trade Development and Structural Shifts

Trade data between Brazil and Russia for 2018–2025 reveal a sustained deepening of economic ties, rather than a temporary surge linked to isolated market cycles.

The structure of the relationship remains asymmetric. Roughly 88% of bilateral trade consists of Russian exports—primarily fertilizers and petroleum products. Brazilian shipments account for approximately 12% of total trade volume.

Despite this, Brazilian exports to Russia have also grown significantly. While exports totaled $730 million in 2018, by 2025 they had more than doubled to $1.52 billion. This reflects a gradual diversification of export goods.

The 2021–2022 period proved especially important. Trade growth of 64.9% in 2021 and another 52.5% in 2022 was driven by several factors simultaneously: the global economic recovery following the pandemic, rising commodity prices, and shifts in Russian trade patterns after sanctions were imposed. These developments reflect not temporary fluctuations but a deeper restructuring of global trade in agricultural products and raw materials.

2.2. Structure and Diversification of Brazilian Agricultural Exports

The composition of Brazilian exports to Russia has changed noticeably. The main products remain soybeans, meat, and coffee—accounting for roughly 62% of export revenues. However, since 2022, Brazil has ramped up deliveries across nine additional product categories, marking an important step toward trade diversification.

Cocoa and cocoa products have seen particularly rapid growth: from $25 million in 2023 to an expected $60 million in 2025. Additionally, Brazil has begun exporting eggs, breeding stock for cattle and small livestock, and mate to Russia. 

This trade expansion was made possible through the work of the Brazil-Russia High-Level Commission for Cooperation (HLC) and negotiations that took place during the 2024 BRICS summit in Kazan.

2.3. Russian Fertilizers and Brazil's Dependence

Russian fertilizer supplies remain the most important component of bilateral relations. Brazil is one of the world's largest fertilizer importers, meeting roughly 70% of domestic demand through imports. Russia holds a key position among suppliers, providing approximately 28–30% of all purchases.

In 2025, Russian fertilizer exports to Brazil reached a record $4 billion, 56% higher than 2021 levels. Notably, this growth continued even after Western sanctions were imposed on Russia. This is largely explained by the fact that fertilizer supplies were partially exempted from sanctions restrictions due to risks to global food supplies. 

Further confirmation of the long-term nature of this cooperation came with EuroChem's $1 billion investment in a phosphate fertilizer production facility in Brazil with an annual capacity of 1 million tons. This demonstrates that Russia seeks not only to export raw materials but also to strengthen its industrial presence in the Brazilian market.

3. Structural Analysis and Comparative Advantages

3.1. Revealed Comparative Advantage

To assess trade structure, we use the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) indicator proposed by Balassa in 1965. If the index exceeds 1, it means the country holds strong positions in a particular industry relative to its share of global trade.

Brazil's RCA indicators exceed 3.0 for soybeans and soy products (around 4.8), beef (3.9), poultry (4.2), sugar (3.5), and coffee (3.6). This confirms the country's strong competitive position precisely in those commodity categories for which demand in Russia has been growing especially rapidly since 2022.

Russia, in turn, has RCA indicators exceeding 5.0 for nitrogen fertilizers and 4.5 for potash fertilizers. These categories are critically important for Brazilian agriculture.

It is precisely this complementarity—Brazil's strong position in finished agricultural products and Russia's dominant position in supplying resources for their production—that explains the resilience of the relationship even amid geopolitical instability.

3.2. The "Sanctions Premium"

The effect that might be called the "sanctions premium" deserves special attention. Western sanctions against Russia have not weakened agricultural ties with Brazil—in some areas, they have actually strengthened them.

Since fertilizers were not subject to strict restrictions, Brazil has become an even more important and stable market for Russia. At the same time, Brazilian food producers have gained advantages in the Russian market following the reduction in European product supplies.

Moreover, investments in logistics, electronic certification systems, and harmonization of sanitary requirements are creating long-term cooperation infrastructure that will remain significant regardless of future geopolitical developments.

4. Institutional Structure of Cooperation

The development of cooperation between Brazil and Russia proceeds through several mechanisms, the main one being the High-Level Commission for Cooperation (HLC). Its eighth meeting took place in February 2026 in Rio de Janeiro during Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin's visit and became one of the most substantive in recent years.

BRICS also plays a major role. The New Development Bank (NDB) finances infrastructure projects related to agricultural logistics, while specialized working groups help countries interact on certification, veterinary control, and technology exchange.

The partnership between Embrapa and Russian research organizations, formalized in 2024, holds particular significance. The Brazilian side possesses strong expertise in tropical agriculture and crop breeding, while the Russian side brings biotechnology and precision farming technologies. This cooperation is viewed as one of the most long-term dimensions of the relationship.

5. Economic Benefits and Risks

5.1. Economic Advantages

Overall, the partnership benefits both sides, though the gains are unevenly distributed.

For Brazil, access to Russian fertilizers helps maintain the competitiveness of its agribusiness sector. Estimates suggest that serious supply disruptions would lead to a 15–25% increase in agricultural input costs, reduced production profitability, and an 8–12% contraction in planted acreage. Given that agribusiness accounts for roughly 24% of Brazil's GDP, the consequences would be substantial.

For Russia, the partnership provides stable foreign currency revenues, supports critical port infrastructure, and helps preserve influence in Global South countries amid constrained relations with the West.

5.2. Key Risks

Despite the resilience of the relationship, significant risks remain.

The first risk is Brazil's heavy dependence on a single fertilizer supplier. If sanctions intensify or logistical problems emerge, this could deal a serious blow to the country's agriculture sector.

The second risk relates to the trade imbalance. Brazil's trade deficit with Russia stands at roughly $9.5 billion annually, which limits the country's negotiating leverage.

The third risk involves potential reputational and geopolitical consequences for Brazil from deepening cooperation with Russia within the BRICS framework.

6. Possible Scenarios and Recommendations

The baseline scenario assumes a gradual easing of geopolitical tensions while maintaining the current trade structure. In this case, bilateral trade volumes could stabilize at $12–14 billion annually through 2028.

The deepening cooperation scenario envisions closer integration within BRICS and increased Russian investment. In that case, trade volume could reach $18–22 billion by 2030.

The deterioration scenario is linked to the intensification of secondary sanctions against trade between Brazil and Russia. In such a case, both countries would face serious economic difficulties, but Brazil would suffer more due to its dependence on fertilizers.

For Brazil, important policy directions could include developing domestic fertilizer production, expanding access to the Russian market for new product categories, and maintaining strategic autonomy in foreign policy.

For Russia, the priority could be further localization of fertilizer production in Brazil and a shift from simple trade to deeper industrial cooperation.

7. Conclusion

Agricultural cooperation between Brazil and Russia has become one of the most prominent examples of economic interaction among Global South countries. It is built on the complementarity of their economies and shared geopolitical interests, which makes the relationship fairly resilient even under external pressure.

Trade between the two countries continues to grow rapidly: in 2024–2025, its volume exceeded $12 billion. The main driver is the exchange of Brazilian agricultural products for Russian fertilizers and other agricultural inputs.

The study shows that the partnership benefits both sides, providing Russia with food security and Brazil with access to essential resources for its agricultural sector. However, along with these advantages come structural risks that require a long-term and balanced approach to economic policy.

As BRICS grows in importance and Brazil-Russia cooperation continues to develop, these ties will most likely deepen further. The sustainability of this partnership going forward will depend on how effectively both sides can manage the emerging risks and imbalances.