Will Current Subsidized Mortgage Limits Be Enough to Buy Housing in 2025?

A Government Incentive That's Hit the Ceiling

The 6% subsidized family mortgage is one of the last remaining instruments supporting Russia's housing market. According to the Ministry of Finance, since the program launched in 2018, more than 1.5 million families have taken advantage of family mortgages. The government subsidizes banks for the interest rate differential, effectively compensating citizens for the rising cost of credit.

For Moscow, St. Petersburg, and their surrounding regions, the limit is 12 million rubles; for other regions, it's 6 million. In 2018, this limit could fully cover the cost of an average two-bedroom apartment in Moscow at around 10 million rubles. But prices have risen while the limit remains unchanged.

The Limit and Reality: Two Different Economies

Over the past two to three years, Russia's housing market has experienced significant price growth. Today, the average two-bedroom apartment in Moscow costs around 37 million rubles. The 12 million ruble mortgage limit covers just 40% of the apartment's cost. A typical two-bedroom apartment in Kazan now costs about 14 million rubles. The 6 million ruble credit limit can cover only 50% of the housing cost. The same holds true in Kaliningrad: a two-bedroom apartment costs approximately 12 million rubles, with the limit covering about 60% of the price. This situation is observed everywhere across the country, with variations of 10-20%.

For families eligible for subsidized credit, the math is straightforward. Given that a two-bedroom apartment in Kazan costs 14 million rubles, the down payment under the program is 20%, or about 3 million rubles. Another 6 million rubles is covered by the family mortgage, leaving the remaining 5 million rubles to be borrowed at market rates.

According to calculations by Argument Media, if half the loan is serviced at 6% and the rest at 17%, the effective rate on the entire debt rises to 11–12%. For many borrowers, this makes the mortgage nearly identical to standard market conditions.

As a result, families—especially those with one child and average income—simply decline to buy, preferring to wait. It turns out that the subsidized mortgage, which was supposed to ensure housing affordability in new developments for Russians, has effectively lost its impact.

A Restraining Factor for the Market and Demographics

The family mortgage, conceived as an instrument to support young families, now forces Russians to carefully weigh all the pros and cons before taking out a loan. According to Anton GlushkovAnton Glushkov, president of the National Association of Builders (NOSTROY), the subsidized credit threshold is now the key factor determining the pace of family mortgage issuance.