This text is an automatic translation from Русский. It was generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
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This text is an automatic translation from Русский. It was generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Read original →An analysis of US tariffs on countries trading with Iran. Iran's trade structure exceeds $150 billion, with top 5 partners: China, UAE, Turkey, Iraq, and India. How tariffs are becoming a tool for secondary sanctions.
The US is introducing 25% tariffs on goods from countries trading with Iran, turning the tariff into a secondary sanctions tool. Iran's foreign trade turnover exceeds $150 billion per year, with over 70% accounted for by 15 key partners, including China ($34 billion), UAE ($20 billion), and Iraq ($12-13 billion). The new approach allows the US to exert pressure on Iran's trading partners without the complex legal procedures of traditional sanctions.
According to Iran's customs administration IRICA, the country's total foreign trade turnover in 2025 (excluding oil) reached approximately $112 billion, comprising $48–50 billion in exports and $62–64 billion in imports. When oil exports are factored in, Iran's total trade volume exceeds $150 billion annually, according to International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates, despite ongoing sanctions.
Key Export Categories (2025):
Import Structure in 2025:
In 2025, Iran conducted trade operations with approximately 110–120 countries, though more than 70% of turnover is concentrated among fewer than 15 key partners. Let's examine the top five.
China: oil and petrochemicals in exchange for industrial goods
China is Iran's largest trading partner. According to Iranian customs authority IRICA, total trade turnover between Iran and China for the Iranian calendar year ending March 20, 2025, reached $34.1 billion (non-oil).
Energy resources are the key "anchor" of trade. According to Reuters, in 2025 more than 80% of Iran's oil exports (1.4–1.6 million barrels per day) went to China, predominantly through indirect and "gray" schemes. In exchange, China supplies Iran with machinery, equipment, electronics, and industrial goods.
UAE: trading hub and re-export
The UAE ranks second as a key trade and logistics partner for Iran. According to IRICA, trade turnover between Iran and the UAE (non-oil) for the year ending March 20, 2025, totaled approximately $20 billion, including $7.2 billion in Iranian exports and more than $12 billion in imports from the UAE.
The UAE functions as a re-export and financial hub: payments, insurance, logistics, and deliveries of goods from third countries pass through the country.
Turkey: energy exchange and industrial complementarity
According to TURKSTAT, total trade turnover between Iran and Turkey for the first 7 months of 2025 reached $3.09 billion. Annualized (through March 20, 2025), trade volume is estimated at $5–6 billion.
Trade includes energy resources, metals, chemical products, and industrial goods. Turkey is simultaneously deeply integrated into EU and U.S. markets while actively working with Iran, making it one of the most vulnerable countries in the event of secondary trade measures being imposed.
Iraq: a neighboring market with high dependency
Iraq is one of Iran's largest regional partners. According to IRICA, Iran's non-oil exports to Iraq for the year ending March 20, 2025 totaled $11.9 billion. Accounting for limited imports from Iraq, total bilateral trade is estimated at $12–13 billion.
Iraq purchases food, construction materials, and industrial goods from Iran, and also depends on Iranian supplies of gas and electricity.
India: limited trade, high political sensitivity
According to Reuters estimates, bilateral trade between India and Iran for the first 10 months of 2025 reached $1.34 billion. The bulk consists of Indian exports to Iran: agricultural products, rice, tea, and pharmaceuticals. India's imports of Iranian oil remain minimal due to sanctions restrictions.
Despite relatively modest trade volumes, India remains a politically sensitive partner, as it simultaneously conducts trade negotiations with the U.S. while trying to avoid escalating sanctions risks.
The 25% tariff effectively shifts the Iran issue from the sanctions realm into the sphere of global trade policy.
The key feature of Iran's current trade model lies in its high concentration: over 70% of trade turnover involves a limited circle of countries, each of which is embedded in global supply chains and dependent to varying degrees on access to the U.S. market.
Essentially, the U.S. is testing a model in which tariffs become the equivalent of secondary sanctions, but without complex legal procedures and exemption lists. If this approach proves politically viable, it could be replicated against other countries, transforming global trade from a rules-based system into a system of conditional access.