Pivot to the East: How Russia-Kyrgyzstan Cooperation Has Evolved Since 2022

Pivot to the East: How Russia-Kyrgyzstan Cooperation Has Evolved Since 2022 | Аргумент Медиа

How the partnership is developing

After 2022, the EAEU countries (Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan) became part of Russia's anti-crisis adaptation system. The main technical shift has been the move to national currencies. According to Russia's Ministry of Economic Development, the share of such settlements in the EAEU reached a record 93% by the end of 2024, while in the Russian-Kyrgyz pair the official figure is 92%. The transition to settlements in rubles and soms is a practical hedge against possible disruptions in financial chains. National currencies remove a vulnerable link: transactions go directly through the banks of both countries, bypassing "toxic" correspondent accounts, and become less predictable for external pressure.

Trade has become a key area of strengthening partnership. In 2022, rapid growth was observed: according to Kyrgyzstan's National Statistical Committee, trade turnover increased by 50%, reaching a record $3.47 billion. This became possible in part thanks to sanctions: Kyrgyzstan became one of the key hubs for supplies to Russia through parallel and "gray imports" of goods from China and other countries. Senior lecturer at the Faculty of World Politics at Lomonosov Moscow State University Ivan Ponyaev noted in an interview with Argument Media: "Today, it is very advantageous for Kyrgyzstan to cooperate with Russia in the area of transit trade. Of course, I mean the flow of goods from China to the Russian Federation." In a report MDS Transmodal notes that between 2019 and 2024, Kyrgyzstan became one of the world's largest importers of specialized equipment and machinery products (growth exceeded 350% compared to the same period), and likely a significant share of machine tools and other products then "traveled on" to Russia.

The year 2023 brought a "breather." Formally, the dynamics were negative: down 10.6% from 2022. In monetary terms—around $3.1 billion. An important nuance: the trade structure didn't change radically—Russia remained the main supplier of energy, metals, and food to the Republic, while Kyrgyzstan increased its supplies of textiles, food, and raw materials.

In 2024, the statistics climbed again: $3.55 billion (+14.2% from 2023). Kyrgyzstan's exports to Russia grew by a quarter (+25.3%), while imports rose 10.5%. This points to two trends at once. Kyrgyzstan is strengthening its export potential in light industry and agricultural products, as well as equipment, while Russia continues to provide steady exports of fuel, food, and metals. Curiously, the Russian embassy in Bishkek announced an alternative estimate—$3.89 billion. The difference from NSC's official data exceeds $300 million and is likely explained by the inclusion of "gray" schemes or different accounting methodologies. The IMF also noted this in its reports, recording that some re-exports may not be captured by official statistics.

Russian Business in Kyrgyzstan: Projects, Companies, Funds

In recent years, Kyrgyzstan has become one of the few countries in the region where Russian capital feels relatively confident. The Russian-Kyrgyz Development Fund has played a key role here: since its founding, it has financed more than three and a half thousand projects worth over $835 million. In 2024 alone, the fund financed projects worth $149.3 million, and in 2025 the amount will grow by 7.8%. These figures illustrate well Russia's growing involvement in the republic's economy.

Equally telling is the growth in the number of companies with Russian participation. Mikhail Mishustin stated that there are now over 1,700 of them. This is explained not only by the effect of sanctions pressure on Russia, but also by Kyrgyzstan's own demand for new investment. Meanwhile, Russian entrepreneurs have already achieved significant results in certain sectors. As writes Nezavisimaya Gazeta, businessman Alexander Stepanyuk, who also serves as head of the Trade Guild of the Association of Compatriot Guilds, has managed to capture 25% of Kyrgyzstan's tire market by establishing exclusive agreements with Russian partners. In Bishkek, roughly 40% of new buildings contain metal products manufactured by his company. According to Stepanyuk, his Kyrgyz company has grown dozens of times over since the 1990s: for a long time there were just eight of them, and now the organization consists of several hundred Russians and is primarily engaged in manufacturing structural products, supplying and selling various goods.

Politicians and experts agree that new forms of cooperation are needed to consolidate this success. State Duma deputy Dmitry Kuznetsov told Argument Media: "Cooperation between Russia and Kyrgyzstan today is, in my view, stable and extremely promising. We share much in terms of common values and culture. My colleagues from Kyrgyzstan and I have intensified dialogue on deepening economic integration, simplifying customs procedures, and harmonizing regulatory approaches." According to him, over the next five years the key sectors for Russian investment will be energy, agriculture, IT, and logistics.

This view is shared by former Foreign Minister of Kyrgyzstan Alikbek Jekshenkulov. In an interview with Argument Media, he noted that Russian business is already actively operating in Kyrgyzstan, but there's significant room for growth. "Kyrgyzstan is increasingly becoming a point through which business ties can be built... over time we will truly become a regional hub for Russian business," the politician stated. In his opinion, Russian entrepreneurs should more actively enter energy, mining, agriculture, and tourism—these are the sectors that can deliver the greatest impact in the coming years. "China and Turkey are actively investing now, but the main flow of tourists comes precisely from Russia—from Siberia, Moscow, St. Petersburg. This means Russian companies have plenty of opportunities to prove themselves," he concluded Jekshenkulov. Deputy Scientific Director of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Alexander Shatilov is confident that Kyrgyzstan's economy can be attractive across a range of sectors—from tourism and e-commerce to the IT market. "The mining industry deserves special mention—Kyrgyzstan is rich in gold and rare earth metals," Shatilov told Argument Media.

Still, even with investment growth, the scale remains incomparable to bilateral trade volumes, which run into the billions of dollars. To turn the situation around, experts say the next step is necessary: establishing joint production facilities, research centers, and assembly plants in Kyrgyzstan. Only then can the partnership move beyond trade and into deep cooperation. And then there are the political risks.

Other Partners: The Russia–China–Turkey Triangle

While Russia remains the largest investor in Kyrgyzstan's humanitarian and labor migration spheres, Moscow's position in trade and infrastructure no longer looks so dominant. By the end of 2024, Bishkek's main partner became China: trade with the PRC exceeded $5.5 billion, showing growth of over 40% in the first half of the year. That summer, an agreement on building the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway—a project capable of reshaping the entire regional transit landscape.

Against this backdrop, Turkey occupies a more modest, yet still notable position. In 2024, trade with Ankara totaled around $467 million (according to Turkish data —$1.5 billion), with the goal of increasing it to $5 billion. But what matters more is this: Turkish companies are increasingly entering strategic sectors. Already in 2025, memoranda of understanding have been signed for the construction of hydroelectric power plants—the Kazarman and Kokomerensky cascades, with a combined value of up to $10 billion. For Kyrgyzstan, such projects mean not just investment, but political presence.

And experts diverge in their assessments of potential political competition amid economic cooperation between Russia and other partners. Deputy Scientific Director of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Alexander Shatilov told Argument Media that Turkey poses the greatest threat: "Ankara is now the most dangerous adversary in the region... persistently promoting the idea of 'Greater Turan.'" China, he says, operates differently—softly, through investment and working with elites. Former Foreign Minister of Kyrgyzstan Alikbek Jekshenkulov disagrees: "Kyrgyzstan has warm ties with Turkey, but its political and economic weight in the region is not comparable to Russia's, because Kyrgyzstan and Russia share not only a modern partnership, but also centuries of common history." This position is supported and Alexander Stepanyuk. "Nearly two centuries of Kyrgyz and Russians living together could not help but leave a deep mark. It was a harmonious process that fostered development, mutual penetration, and enrichment of cultures," the businessman emphasized.

Senior Lecturer at the Faculty of World Politics at Lomonosov Moscow State University Ivan Ponyaev draws attention to a more down-to-earth factor—logistics: "major players more often choose Kazakhstan or the Transcaucasian countries" due to the limited capacity of Kyrgyz routes. And State Duma deputy Dmitry Kuznetsov emphasizes: Russia will maintain its leadership provided it invests in priority sectors, localizes production, and pursues technological cooperation. According to the words of businessman Alexander Stepanyuk, attitudes toward Russia in Kyrgyzstan remain respectful. "It is necessary to systematically enhance the role of Russian compatriots in the country's economic, political, and social spheres for the benefit of developing Russian-Kyrgyz cooperation," the entrepreneur emphasized.

The bottom line is that Bishkek is pursuing a "multi-vector" strategy: benefiting from competition among major players while preserving its own sovereign choices. For Russia, this means transitioning from the role of "trade donor" to that of systemic investor—otherwise Chinese and Turkish projects may become entrenched in infrastructure sectors.

Russia's Prospects: How to Build Long-Term Cooperation?

Today's trade turnover between Russia and Kyrgyzstan is essentially a foundation to build upon, but by no means the end goal. Kyrgyzstan's economy remains open and vulnerable, which means sustainable growth requires new "anchor points."

Energy appears to be the main field for rapprochement. Kyrgyzstan is preparing to build new hydroelectric cascades, where Turkish investors are actively involved. But this is precisely where a niche remains for Russian engineering and equipment supplies: Moscow has the experience, technology, and ability to work through localization arrangements. In parallel, fuel security issues are on the agenda. Despite temporary export restrictions currently in place on fuel from Russia, supplies to EAEU countries, including Kyrgyzstan, have been maintained.

The second direction is agriculture. Russia remains a key market for Kyrgyz products, making it logical to build cooperative chains of "raw materials–processing–sales." Logistics is also important, where Russia could serve as an integrator of supply chains. One such project is the Kokcho–Koz hub, which has already been announced as a transport and logistics center project. This center could become a transshipment node between Russian routes and the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway line.

Experts agree that Russia still has room to strengthen its position, but its strategy must evolve. Alikbek Djekshenkulov is convinced that cooperation with Russia will grow stronger. "Russia remains one of Kyrgyzstan's key trading partners, and millions of our citizens work and study in Russia. For us, Russia represents human and partnership relations that cannot be replaced," the expert emphasized. Meanwhile, State Duma deputy Dmitry Kuznetsov emphasizes the importance of joint projects, including in the areas of cultural cooperation and parliamentary diplomacy, which serves as an effective tool for expanding dialogue between countries.