Gold, Bonds, and a Touch of Risk: What Retail Investors Can Learn from Major Traders
How to invest in 2025: Russian experts discuss the shift from deposits to bonds and equities, gold's prospects, and cryptocurrency risks. Practical strategies for retail investors.
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Global wealthy investors in 2025 are holding 26% of capital in cash, maintaining liquidity amid uncertainty, while not abandoning stocks and alternative assets. Russian experts recommend retail investors transition from deposits to balanced portfolios of bonds, dividend stocks, and money market funds against the backdrop of the Central Bank's key rate reduction. All experts consider cryptocurrencies a high-risk speculative instrument unsuitable for capital preservation.
What Are the Investment "Whales" Doing?
In 2025, the world's wealthy investors (HNWI) are showing restraint, but they're not shying away from risk. According to data from Capgemini, their portfolio structure looks like this: 22% in equities, 18% in bonds, 19% in real estate, 15% in alternative assets (private equity, hedge funds, commodities, and cryptocurrencies), and a record 26% in cash. This allocation reflects a desire to maintain liquidity while still capturing long-term growth opportunities—primarily in equities and alternatives.
For Russians, bank deposits remain the primary savings vehicle, but their yields are declining in line with the Central Bank's key rate. Meanwhile, inflation is still far from the 4% target, and according to surveys, households' perceived inflation exceeds 15–16%. What should one do in this situation? There's the MOEX Index, which has risen more than 20% since the beginning of the year, but its growth lacks stability and depends on geopolitical realities.
Against this backdrop, the key question for investors is: stay in deposits, lock in "risk-free" returns, or enter the market? We put these and other questions to Russian experts who are currently actively engaged in investing.
What Investment Strategies Do Prominent Russian Investors Follow?
The key question for investors today is straightforward: where to invest and how? There are several options—from high-yield deposits to bonds and dividend-paying stocks, and for risk-takers, cryptocurrencies as well. Russian experts offer different answers, but they're united by caution and a pursuit of balance.
Financial columnist and owner of the Telegram channel NEP 2.0 Nikita Makarov follows a balanced strategy. According to him, one-third of his portfolio consists of money market funds yielding up to 17.7% annually, around 40% is in corporate bonds with returns of 25-30%, and the remainder is in Russian equities, which the expert began buying after the Central Bank launched its rate-cutting cycle. Makarov's portfolio includes X5 Group, Inter RAO, Lukoil, Rosneft, and Sberbank. "I'm betting on defensive securities, consumer sector stocks, and gold. Polyus Gold is my proxy for gold prices and ruble weakness. I believe the price of gold could nearly double, and in the near term the exchange rate could return to the 90-95 rubles per dollar range. Against the backdrop of falling key rates and a positive resolution to peace negotiations, stocks could deliver returns of 30-40% annually," he notes.
Private asset manager Artem Maksadov (Telegram channel NEBAFFET) focuses on bonds and stocks that benefit from rate cuts. "The main theme of 2025 has been playing the decline in the key rate. That's why I've held mainly bonds in my portfolio, along with a number of stocks that benefit from falling bond yields," he emphasizes.
Risk manager and owner of the Telegram channel Zakharov Invest Kirill Zakharov, by contrast, is entirely focused on corporate ruble-denominated bonds. "100% of my portfolio is fixed coupon," the expert says.
The experts choose different approaches, but all avoid excessive risks. Some bet on balanced portfolios, combining stocks, bonds, and cash to profit from different phases of the economic cycle. Others go entirely into bonds, counting on predictability and fixed income.
The advantage of this approach is stability and protection from sharp swings, but the downside is that it limits potential capital growth. Mixed strategies offer more flexibility and allow investors to catch growth in stocks or gold, but come with heightened risks. Ultimately, the common denominator is a bet on high-yielding and relatively predictable instruments that help weather volatility and preserve capital.
At what key rate level will deposits remain more attractive?
The key rate cut has become the year's main event for the market. At the start of 2025, deposits offered up to 16–17% annually; today they're already below 14%. This is forcing investors to seek alternatives.
Nikita Makarov (NEP 2.0): "Formally, deposits at 15% are comparable to the historical returns of the MOEX Index (around 15% per year since 1993). But in reality, the time to switch has already come. You can still jump on the departing train of corporate bonds with higher yields, but moving into deposits is no longer worthwhile," the expert explains. Therefore, in Makarov's view, now is the time to consider other instruments.
Artem Maksadov (NEBAFFET) adds that deposits and the stock/bond market cannot be compared directly: "Deposits carry minimal risk of losses. Bonds and stocks always carry the risk of declining value." For a conservative investor, deposits will remain more attractive even if the rate isn't at its maximum, the expert emphasized.
Kirill Zakharov (Zakharov Invest) clarifies: "Deposits at any rate are only interesting for amounts not subject to taxation. Otherwise, bonds are always more attractive because they offer greater flexibility and choice for different risk levels."
As deposit yields decline, interest in the stock market will grow. But for "cautious" players, deposits will retain their significance as a safety cushion.
What should ordinary Russians pay attention to?
Nikita Makarov (NEP 2.0) suggests paying attention to his strategy: "One-third in money market funds, one-third in stocks, 40% in bonds." Regarding bonds, the expert emphasizes these could include both long and short OFZ bonds, substitute bonds, and corporate bonds from quality issuers.
Artem Maksadov (NEBAFFET) is confident: "Now is the time to gradually shift from bonds into reliable stocks with high dividend yields. The total return on long bonds currently stands at 13-14%, with the coupon fixed for the entire term until maturity; stocks, however, have potential for dividend growth, so in a scenario of further rate cuts they will be attractive." The expert also draws attention to currency instruments: "The ruble exchange rate is historically weak against the dollar, and there's no reason for this trend to reverse, since the weaker the exchange rate, the higher the budget revenues," Maksadov explains.
Kirill Zakharov (Zakharov Invest) suggests a conservative approach: "Money market funds are delivering strong returns today, but for passive investors, AAA-rated substitute bonds with maturities up to 2 years are also a good option." It's a sensible way to park cash with minimal risk.
Retail investors should base their decisions on their own risk tolerance. But experts agree: even with a conservative strategy, balance across different instruments is essential.
Cryptocurrencies — danger or opportunity?
Nikita Makarov (НЭП 2.0) takes a skeptical view of crypto: "Cryptocurrencies are overheated and overpriced. They're a proxy for U.S. liquidity. If a crisis hits — say, a black swan event from Japan with its 300% debt-to-GDP ratio, or from the geopolitical agenda — crypto will be the first to crash."
Artem Maksadov (НЕБАФФЕТ) also supports this approach: "Cryptocurrencies are an extremely high-risk instrument. Their value depends on global market liquidity and regulation. Without understanding these factors, an investor risks entering at the peak of the hype."
Kirill Zakharov (Zakharov Invest) adds: "Crypto is venture capital. It can grow exponentially, but it can just as easily destroy invested capital. It cannot be called a means of capital preservation."
In Russia, few people would recommend crypto as a reliable investment instrument. Everyone sees it exclusively as high-risk speculation, including Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina, who generally does not support the use of cryptocurrencies within Russia. Recent years' dynamics confirm this: bitcoin's price rose above $65,000 in 2021, but then fell by more than 70%, dropping below $20,000. Such sharp fluctuations demonstrate that while potential profits are enormous, the risk of losing a significant portion of capital is equally real.
Brief advice for Russians on how to preserve and grow their money
Nikita Makarov (НЭП 2.0): "You need to do this systematically—it's not a one-time thing, but like going to the gym. That means checking your portfolio every day and, for example, setting aside a certain amount from your salary each month. Save it, reallocate it, accumulate it, set goals and work toward them. Once you reach your goals, set new ones and keep growing your wealth."
Artem Maksadov (НЕБАФФЕТ): "Invest only in what you understand. If you know the company, its business, and understand what's behind the price movement—the risk will be on your side."
Kirill Zakharov (Zakharov Invest): "Preserving and growing your money is never easy. Investors face a choice: accept modest returns with virtually no risk, or take on risk and earn more. There are no easy paths here, nor any universal formula."
In Closing
Investing is the foundation of your future. Great things start small: for a tree to grow, it needs watering and fertilizing—the same goes for capital, which must be steadily built up and protected.
Experts emphasize: there's no easy path to investing, but it's consistency that delivers results. Even small regular contributions grow into substantial capital over time. History shows that those who set aside just 5–10% of their income and invest in reliable instruments gain financial security and independence over the course of decades.
The key is to act consistently, not wait for a miracle.
