The Fertilizer Crisis: How the Middle East Conflict Is Disrupting the Global Planting Season

Global Shock

In March 2026, the global fertilizer market came under severe pressure amid escalating conflict around Iran and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—a critical artery for world trade. Not only does a significant portion of oil and gas shipments pass through it, but also critical volumes of fertilizers from Persian Gulf countries. The region's largest producers are Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, which output 50-55 million tons annually. By various estimates, this route accounts for about a third of global maritime fertilizer shipments, including up to 30% of urea exports, around 25% of phosphate fertilizer deliveries, and nearly 45% of global sulfur exports—a vital raw material for phosphate production.

The deteriorating situation quickly impacted prices. Within just a few weeks, key fertilizer types rose an average of 30-40%: urea prices climbed from $482.5 to $720 per ton by mid-March, while ammonia increased roughly a quarter, to $600 per ton. Fitch Ratings analysts have already revised their 2026 market forecast, expecting at least a 25% price increase. Under an unfavorable scenario, if supply constraints persist, prices could rise even more sharply—up to 90% or higher.

The problem lies not only in disrupted logistics but also in the sharp rise in raw material costs. The production cost of nitrogen fertilizers depends 60-80% on gas prices, which have reached multi-year highs amid the crisis. Strikes on energy infrastructure in Persian Gulf countries have resulted in partial capacity losses: for instance, in Qatar, one of the world's largest LNG exporters, about 17% of the country's export capacity has been knocked offline.

As a result, national oil and gas company QatarEnergy has already declared force majeure on several contracts, including deliveries to Europe and Asia, and warned of potential losses up to $20 billion in annual revenue. All this intensifies pressure on the fertilizer market and creates conditions for further price increases.

Global Farmers on the Brink

The consequences of price spikes and fertilizer supply disruptions are already manifesting at the farm level—and we're talking about rethinking the very logic of planting. In several countries, farmers are facing the need to change their crop structure to stay within budget.

In the US, agricultural producers are massively considering switching from corn to soybeans: the latter requires significantly less nitrogen fertilizer and costs less to cultivate. The industry warns that prices have risen so rapidly that many farmers simply didn't have time to pre-book necessary volumes. But even those who managed to pay for fertilizers in advance risk facing delivery delays: according to experts, shipping from the Middle East to northern states can take up to two months.

European farmers are also concerned about fertilizer supply stability: against the backdrop of reduced exports from Qatar and other Persian Gulf countries, EU agricultural producers are being forced to more actively seek alternatives, including turning to Russian products, which remain expensive due to duties and sanctions. Ultimately, European farmers, like their American counterparts, must revise their planting plans, even though the spring campaign is already underway.