Caviar Production Surges in 2025—But Will Prices Actually Drop?

Salmon Is the Foundation

The basis of red caviar production is salmon, which is caught primarily in the Pacific Ocean. The fish carcass goes for "meat," while the roe is salted and sold. According to Rosstat data, the price per kilogram of red caviar in Russia dropped below 9,500 rubles in September of this year—the first time this has happened since late 2024. This trend continued in October. The high prices throughout 2025 are largely tied to seasonality: the fishing season runs from June through October. Nearly 70% of all caviar volume enters the market in the second half of the year, so the price peak traditionally falls in July–August. In spring and summer, retail prices remain elevated because only stocks from the previous year's production remain on the market. In other words, throughout the first half of the year, the market was supplied with leftover "last year's caviar," and 2024 saw a record-low salmon catch of 233,000 tons.

According to the Russian Fish Union (based onstatisticsfrom VNIRO), as of October 20, 2025, the Pacific salmon catch in the Far East reached 335,000 tons—44% higher than the figure for the same date in 2024. This significant growth is due to the low base effect from last year's "non-salmon year," meaning seasonal factors and the fish's life cycle.

Typically, salmon catches are better in odd years than in even years, since the reproductive cycle of pink salmon (the main target species among Pacific salmon) is two years. To put this in perspective: in the odd year of 2023, the catch was one of the highest on record, exceeding 600,000 tons, while in the even year of 2024 it plummeted by half—around 230,000 tons (the worst fishing season in recent years of observation).

The record was in 2018—676,000 tons. In the odd year of 2025, we're again seeing growth in salmon catches—over 335,000 tons (by year-end, the catch could reach around 350,000 tons).

This was confirmed by a representative of the Russian Fish Union in a conversation with Argument Media, noting that the Union's Analytical Center relies on official statistics. Taking into account the volume of salmon catch and the roe yield coefficient (4-4.5% on average), the forecast for red caviar production is around 15,000 tons. Meanwhile, domestic market demand is estimated at 11-13,000 tons. "In other words, there's sufficient caviar on the market, and the price of this delicacy will be determined by the balance of supply and demand," the association notes.