'The Conflict Is Only Beginning to Flare Up': Aleksandr Shatilov on the Iran Crisis

The escalation of the conflict around Iran has become one of the key factors in global politics and economics. Against the backdrop of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, tensions are mounting in the Middle East, while energy markets are responding with price spikes and fears of oil supply disruptions. Under these conditions, the G7 countries and the International Energy Agency decided to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves to stabilize the market.

The editors of Argument Media spoke with Aleksandr Shatilov, Deputy Scientific Director at Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, about where the current round of confrontation may lead and which scenarios appear most likely.Aleksandr Shatilov.

— How do you assess the current phase of the Iran conflict: is this the peak of tensions or just the beginning of a more prolonged crisis?

— I believe Donald Trump made a major mistake by going head-to-head with Iran under the current circumstances. Especially considering that his flanks aren't protected and he faces very serious opposition within American society. So this cavalry charge against Iran could cost him dearly.

This is already evident from Iran's actions. Despite the massive bombardments and Donald Trump's claims that Iranian capabilities have been all but destroyed, Tehran is delivering very precise and quite painful strikes—against both Americans and their allies. Moreover, Iran has managed to seize control of the information narrative—a sphere where Trump has traditionally been particularly strong. Right now, it's largely Iran that's setting the tone in the information space, which has proven quite unexpected.

Therefore, I think, given the current situation and the rather aggressive posture of Iran's new leadership, we can say that the conflict is only beginning to flare up.

— Which scenarios now appear most likely, considering the absence of concrete goals on the U.S. side?

— There are several options here. Either Trump goes all the way and tries to organize a ground operation, which risks very serious losses and defeat in the midterm Congressional elections. This could essentially lead to serious domestic political destabilization in the U.S. As soon as coffins with the dead start returning home, the Democratic opposition will instantly intensify pressure on the administration. At the same time, finding forces willing to fight for American interests in the region is extremely difficult today.

The second option is to pretend that all objectives have been achieved and quietly extricate themselves from this situation. The problem is that Iran won't allow this—so far Tehran isn't prepared to make concessions to the U.S. under any circumstances.