Professor Medvedeva: Key Negative Effect of Sanctions Is the Threat to Russian Fertilizer Supplies to Countries Facing Acute Hunger

In 2024–2025, Russia has been increasing the physical volume of its chemical exports, particularly mineral fertilizers, despite ongoing sanctions pressure and the transformation of global logistics chains. According to the Russian Association of Fertilizer Producers, mineral fertilizer exports in 2024 reached approximately 42 million tons, up roughly 13% from the previous year, with growth in shipments continuing into 2025 as producers pivot to new markets.

Anti-Russian sanctions have complicated chemical exports due to logistics challenges (including refusals by foreign carriers) and limited access to foreign components, requiring reorientation toward new partners and development of import substitution. The key negative effect of these restrictions is that they endanger Russian fertilizer supplies to countries outside the European Union (including developing and impoverished nations already facing acute hunger), as existing logistics and financial chains are disrupted. These risks have been repeatedly noted by international organizations, which point to a direct link between fertilizer availability and food security levels in developing economies.

These factors have led to a decline in the share of chemical products in Russian exports in value terms, even as physical shipment volumes have shown recovery in recent years. Under current conditions, Russian companies must seek cooperation with new foreign carriers and partners willing to work in the present environment. The development of new transport corridors has become critically important, particularly in eastern and southern directions, as evidenced by growing shipments to countries in Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, where demand for fertilizers remains consistently high.

Anti-Russian sanctions directly targeting fertilizer exports have largely not been imposed, since Russia is one of the world's largest suppliers of these products. Instead, indirect measures and restrictions have been applied, including quantitative export restrictions imposed by Russia itself to ensure domestic market supply, as well as U.S. compensatory duties on imports of urea nitrate from Russia. European Union sanctions apply exclusively to fertilizer imports into EU countries and do not affect deliveries to third countries, allowing export channels to be maintained outside the European direction.

Despite sanctions, countries such as India and China (BRICS nations), as well as the United States, continue to import Russian fertilizers, in some cases at lower prices due to changes in logistics and redistribution of export flows. At the same time, Russia is imposing its own quantitative export restrictions to protect the domestic market and smooth price fluctuations. The result has been a sustained trend toward geographic diversification of Russian fertilizer exports based on demand in various foreign countries, primarily in agrarian economies focused on increasing their own food production.

Under these circumstances, it appears advisable to urgently agree on an international legal mechanism that fully exempts food, fertilizers, and raw materials for their production from sanctions restrictions in order to prevent the worsening of the global food crisis. Such measures are being discussed at the level of international organizations and the expert community as a necessary element for stabilizing world agricultural markets and reducing deficit risks in the world's most vulnerable regions.